Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
