Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
